Event-by-event predictions for the 2026 outdoor track and field championships

The 2026 DI men's and women's outdoor track and field championships are this week. There's no better time than now for my championship predictions, event by event. Let's dive in.

Women's Predictions

100 meters — Predicted Winner: Shenese Walker, Florida State

Shenese Walker ran 10.80 in a race this season and finished second. She finished behind Adaejah Hodge (10.77) at Tom Jones Memorial back in April, but shows Walker in front just until the finish line.

I think Walker prevails in her second head-to-head meeting with Hodge, thanks to fresher legs as the 100 meters is Walker’s only individual event.

100 hurdles — Predicted Winner: Aaliyah McCormick, Oregon

Since last season, Aaliyah McCormick has stepped up big-time on the championship stage. Even without having the fastest time entering the meet, she still came away with the 2025 outdoor 100 hurdles and 2026 indoor 60 hurdles wins. Now she’ll have the fastest time in the country and seventh-fastest in NCAA history after running 12.44 in the west region. The defending champ is in great shape entering the championships.

LEADING THE WAY: These are the Bowerman frontrunners entering the 2026 outdoor track championships

200 meters — Predicted Winner: Adaejah Hodge, Georgia

Adaejah Hodge is the pick here as she goes for a season sweep of the 200 meters. Hodge has already run 21.92 seconds in the 200 meters this season  — the fourth-fastest in NCAA history — and has the straight line speed off the curve that few can match.

400 meters — Predicted Winner: Dejanea Oakley, Georgia

This one will come down to lane draw. Georgia’s Dejanea Oakley, USC’s Madison Whyte and Arkansas’ Kaylyn Brown and Sanaria Butler have all run sub-50 this season. It may come down who can get their preferred lane out of the heats on Thursday. 

With Oakley and Butler both in heat one, they might push each other to the faster times. Of those two, my pick is Oakley since she’s the one who’s run sub-49 this season.

DAWGS: How a new facility has Georgia track and field gearing up for an exciting championship season

400 hurdles — Predicted Winner: Akala Garrett, South Carolina

Akala Garrett finished fourth in the 400 hurdles as a freshman and second as a sophomore. Now a junior, this figures to be Garrett’s year for the win after running 53.87 in the east region, the fastest time in the nation.

800 meters — Predicted Winner: Sanu Jallow-Lockhart, Arkansas 

After running just 0.01 seconds shy of the collegiate record two weeks ago, Sanu Jallow-Lockhart is the pick here.

MORE RECORDS: Every collegiate track and field record broken in 2026, so far

1500 meters — Predicted Winner: Silan Ayyildiz, Oregon

Oregon hasn’t won a women’s 1500 meter title since Jessica Hull did so back in 2018. I think that drought ends this year and a Duck gets it done on her home track. My top candidate to do so is Silan Ayyildiz, bouncing back from a fourth-place finish last year. Ayyildiz has run the fastest of Oregon’s three women in the event. A home crowd motivating her in a deep field could be what she needs to bring home the title.

3000 meter steeplechase — Predicted Winner: Sophie Novak, Notre Dame

Sophie Novak has already finished first against competitive fields at the Bryan Clay Invitational and ACC Championships. She has the fastest time in the nation this season and her performance this season makes her the favorite entering Eugene.

5000 meters — Predicted Winner: Jane Hedengren, BYU

The 5000 meters will be Jane’s second event in Eugene and I think she’ll complete the distance sweep. She set the collegiate record in the 5K at 14:50.50 back in April.

10,000 meters — Predicted Winner: Jane Hedengren, BYU

Jane Hedengren opened her outdoor season with a collegiate record in the 10,000 meters and didn’t run the race again until the west regionals, using a late kick for a win. That means she’s undefeated in the race this season, and I think it’ll stay that way.

4x100 meter relay — Predicted Winner: Southern California

USC ran the two fastest 4x1s in the nation this season and has three of the top eight times. The Trojans also have three 100 meter sprinters in Eugene, tied for the most of any women’s team. USC gets the nod, but it could come down to the anchor leg.

4x400 meter relay — Predicted Winner: Arkansas

Arkansas has run the fastest 4x400 meter relay time this season. It’s hard to pick against the hogs in this event; it’s even harder to do so when they lead the nation.

MORE: How Southern's Alase overcame adversity to post nation-leading time ahead of NCAA postseason

Long jump — Predicted Winner: Alyssa Jones, Stanford

After Alyssa Jones landed a 7.09m jump two weeks ago, it locked her in as the predicted winner in the event. While anything can happen in the long jump, I’m not picking against the woman with the No. 2 jump in collegiate history.

Triple jump — Predicted Winner: Shantae Foreman, Clemson

Shantae Foreman has five jumps over 13.30 meters this season to just four fouls in the triple jump this year. At the championship level, every jump matters and I think Foreman can land a big jump early to win this one.

High jump — Predicted Winner: Temitope Adeshina, Texas Tech

Temitope Adeshina is one of two former NCAA high jump champions competing in the event in Eugene, but only Adeshina has cleared 1.90 meters this season. In fact, the Red Raider has cleared 1.95m during the outdoor season, making her plenty familiar with a potential championship-winning height.

Pole vault — Predicted Winner: Hana Moll, Washington

Hana Moll has set the collegiate record twice this season already. While Hana’s toughest competition might be from her sister Amanda in Eugene, I think Hana’s consistency puts her over the top for the win.

Discus — Predicted Winner: Alida Van Daalen, Florida

Alida Van Daalen landing the No. 3 discus throw in collegiate history was just the latest in her impressive month of May where she added almost three meters at every meet. She’s peaking at the right time and it’ll pay off in Eugene.

Shot put — Predicted Winner: Axelina Johansson, Nebraska

Axelina Johansson has the No. 2 shot put throw in collegiate history, an outdoor NCAA title from 2023 and won this year’s indoor title. She’s the best thrower in the event and I think she lives up to the billing.

Hammer — Predicted Winner: Anthonett Nabwe, Minnesota

Only Camryn Rogers has had a better performance in the hammer throw than Minnesota’s Anthonett Nabwe. Rogers is a professional now. That means it’s Nabwe’s title to lose.

Javelin — Predicted Winner: Valentina Barrios Bornacelli, Missouri

I think Valentina Barrios Bornacelli goes back-to-back in the javelin. When we last saw her in Eugene, she PR’d on the biggest stage. She’s been here before and isn’t afraid of the moment.

Heptathlon — Predicted Winner: JaiCieonna Gero-Holt, Illinois

JaiCieonna Gero-Holt bounces back from a runner-up finish indoors in the pentathlon to win the heptathlon outdoors. Gero-Holt won the Big Ten title in the combined events and can build off that performance.

2026 OUTDOOR T&F CHAMP INFO: Schedule, selections, how to watch, history

Men's Predictions

100 meters — Predicted Winner: Kanyinsola Ajayi, Auburn

When he’s finished through the line, Auburn’s Kanyinsola Ajayi hasn’t run slower than 10.00 this season. Coming off a wind-legal 9.84-second finish, we could be in for a show in Eugene.

110 hurdles — Predicted Winner: Ja’Kobe Tharp, Auburn

Ja’Kobe Tharp completes the back-to-back season sweep in the hurdles for the first time since Grant Holloway. While he doesn’t have the fastest time in the nation, he has run sub-13.10 four times this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if he PRs in Eugene.

200 meters — Predicted Winner: Jelani Watkins, Arkansas

Jelani Watkins broke two-time outdoor 200 meter champion Wallace Spearmon’s school record at SEC championships with a 19.87-second finish in a win. Now he follows up with a collegiate title of his own.
 

WOO PIG: How Arkansas' Jelani Watkins became the latest college football player-turned-track star

400 meters — Predicted Winner: Samuel Ogazi, Alabama

After a pair of sub-44 performances in recent outings, Samuel Ogazi is my pick to win the 400 meters. He’s been on a different level lately and no one would be surprised if he broke the collegiate record.

400 hurdles — Predicted Winner: Kody Blackwood, Texas 

Kody Blackwood won the SEC title over a field that had six eventual final-site qualifiers in it. Blackwood won on that stage with one of the fastest times in the NCAA this season. He has a good shot at doing the same in Eugene.

800 meters — Predicted Winner: Rivaldo Marshall, Arkansas

Rivaldo Marshall last won an NCAA title in 2024 during the indoor championships while running for Iowa. A lot has changed since then, including Marshall’s uniform, but Marshall’s talent has not. After winning the SEC Championships, Marshall climbs back atop the NCAA podium.

1500 meters — Predicted Winner: Simeon Birnbaum, Oregon

I’m not picking against the collegiate record holder and Big Ten 1500 meter champion here.

3000 meter steeplechase — Predicted Winner: Geoffrey Kirwa, Louisville

Geoffrey Kirwa has run 8:08.10 in the steeplechase this year. By doing so, he’s put Henry Rono’s collegiate record under serious consideration of falling for the first time in decades. Even if he doesn’t break the record I think, Kirwa wins the title.

OUTDOOR PREVIEWS: Potential season sweeps | Every potential repeat champion | Records that could fall

5000 meters — Predicted Winner: Habtom Samuel, New Mexico

Habtom Samuel has set the 5000 meter collegiate record twice this season. He also won the event of the same distance indoors. I’m not picking against him here.

10,000 meters — Predicted Winner: Habtom Samuel, New Mexico

It’s been two years since Samuel won the 10K in 2024, but I think he finds his way across the line first in 2026. Samuel has aspirations for The Bowerman, so he knows how important a distance double will be to his case.

4x100 meter relay — Predicted Winner: Auburn

Auburn makes it three straight in the 4x100 meter relay. The Tigers have five sprinters that all qualified for the 100 meters and that depth gives them plenty of options to choose from in their three-peat.

4x400 meter relay — Predicted Winner: LSU

LSU ran 2:58.47 to win the SEC Championship and then just ran over the three minute mark in the east region at 3:00.39. Sub-three minutes might be what it will take to win the 4x4 this year, and the Tigers have the best shot at doing so in Eugene.

AWARDS: The 2026 Bowerman Watch List for men's and women's NCAA track and field

Long jump — Predicted Winner: Tafadzwa Chikomba, Kansas State

Windy or not, 8.75 meters in the long jump is impressive. It wouldn’t make sense to pick against Tafadzwa Chikomba in this event.

Triple jump — Predicted Winner: Brandon Green Jr., Oklahoma

Defending champion Brandon Green Jr. is looking the part after a strong May. Green cleared 16.50 meters on every jump at SEC Championships, including four jumps of 16.76 meters or more. Combine that with a 16.74m jump at the first round meet, and you have a triple jumper that should be in shape to defend his title.

High jump — Predicted Winner: Kimani Jack, Georgia

Kimani Jack has seven clearances of 2.20 meters or higher this season. The high jump this year could come down to a tiebreaker, so Jack’s ability to get over the bar consistently at 2.20m makes him the most reliable prediction here.

Pole vault — Predicted Winner: Aleksandr Solovev, Texas A&M

Aleksandr Solovev won the outdoor pole vault last year and finished second indoors. The indoor winner isn’t in the championship field, so Solovev’s the pick to go back-to-back.

Discus — Predicted Winner: Ralford Mullings, Oklahoma

Ralford Mullings defeated the discus collegiate record holder for a title last year and enters 2026 as the defending champion. He’s shown he can get that job done under pressure, and I think he’ll have a winning day in June.

Shot put — Predicted Winner: Ben Smith, Oregon

Freshman Ben Smith has cleared 20 meters at every outdoor meet of his young college career, including a win at Big Ten Championships. Without Tarik Robinson-Hagan in the field due to injury, Smith could break through with a title on his home track.

Hammer — Predicted Winner: Texas Tanner, Air Force

Texas Tanner has finished three meets over 77 meters in the hammer. Tanner’s ability to hit far distances in the hammer stands out, and he’s my pick to win.

Javelin — Predicted Winner: Chinecherem Prosper Nnamdi, Texas A&M

Chinecherem Prosper Nnamdi has six javelin throws over 80 meters this season. There’s only been three other throws beyond 80 meters across the rest of the NCAA. The Aggie gets it done.

Decathlon — Predicted Winner: Jip de Greef, Illinois

I’m going with the national leader in the Decathlon to close out the predictions. The Illini have been great in the field events as a team and under the tutelage of Petros Kyprianou, I think they get a decathlon champion.